Carrier and Lennox report earnings, eye 2025 price increases

We’re in the middle of what the suits call “earnings season,” when public companies like Carrier and Lennox report quarterly results and then hop on a conference call to share what happened — and what’s ahead.

Some comments from Carrier and Lennox’s CEOs during their calls over the past two days: 

Carrier

• “We have the 410A to support our customers, obviously, and then probably next year, about 90% of our deliveries will be 454B.”

• “In terms of pricing, we've been very clear that the base price of 454B will be 10% higher than the base price of 410A.”

• “And I think that once our customers and others see the underlying cost impact of having to put additional parts, controls, and algorithms into the 454B systems… that’s going to stick.”

Lennox

• “The first half of next year, specifically the first quarter, will see continued R-410A sales as everyone depletes their regular R-410A inventory.” 

• “We still estimate that, for the full year 2025, approximately 65% of [our sales] will transition to low-GWP products.”

• “Looking further ahead, we anticipate existing R-410A refrigerant will face price increases as supply tightens… This will increase cost pressure on repairs, leading to higher demand for system replacements.”

• “While we’re generally optimistic about 2025… it’s important to recognize [that] uncertain consumer confidence continues to pose challenges, alongside a trend towards more value-tier products.”

Bonus: Watsco

• “I think the consumer is probably not ready for [the refrigerant change]. They don't really understand what's coming at them. As we indicated earlier, it's going to be a system change out, not just an outdoor change out.” 

• “And that's going to be a bit of a sticker shock, I think, for some consumers once they see what the pricing is going to look like. So, it's more than just the 10% price increase, it's also the entire system.”

Of note: Carrier and Lennox both saw double-digit residential revenue growth in Q3, a rebound from last year’s declines. 

Zoom in: Check out Carrier and Lennox’s full Q3 presentations.