Colorado State University reduces 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook

Colorado State University has lowered its hurricane predictions for the 2026 season, according to a new forecast issued on June 10.  

What’s happening: CSU now expects 11 named storms and five hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this season, down from its April forecast, which called for 13 named storms and six hurricanes. 

• That updated outlook is below the 1991-2020 seasonal average of 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes. 

What they’re saying: The outlook is tied to less favorable storm conditions in the Atlantic basin, including cooler-than-normal waters in parts of the tropical Atlantic. 

• “We have reduced the forecast numbers from our April outlook due to increased confidence in a moderate to strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” the university said in the release.

Go deeper: CSU also lowered the odds of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.

• The entire continental U.S. coastline has a 24 percent chance of at least one major (Category 3-5) hurricane making landfall this season, below the historical average of 43 percent. 
• Meanwhile, the East Coast, including Florida, has an 11 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall, while the Gulf Coast has a 14 percent chance, per CSU. 

Yes, but: The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, so there’s plenty of time for the forecast to play out. 

CSU’s next forecast will be released on July 8, when researchers should have a better idea of how the peak season is shaping up.