HVAC buying indicator sinks through 2025, hits 5-year low

The share of U.S. consumers who felt it was a good time to buy large household durables — an indicator of HVAC purchasing intent — fell in December 2025, capping a year-long downward trend, according to the latest University of Michigan data. 

What’s happening: In the university’s popular consumer survey, when asked whether now is a good or bad time to buy ‘major household items,’ 29 percent of respondents (across all ages and income levels) in December said it was a good time, down from 51 percent in January 2025. 

• Meanwhile, the share of respondents who felt it was a bad time to buy during the month rose to 69 percent, from 45 percent in January.

What they’re saying: The most selected reason among those who felt it was a bad time to buy in December was, “Prices are high,” according to the university. Notably, however, the top reason among those who said it was a good time was, “Prices are low; good buys available.”

The big picture: From January 2020 through mid-2021, consumer sentiment for big-ticket purchases remained strong. But that reversed in the second half of 2021, deteriorated through 2022, and negative sentiment has largely persisted since, with the share of consumers saying it’s a good time to buy hitting its five-year low in the most recent quarter.