HVAC buying indicator ticks up in July — but remains muted

The share of U.S. consumers who felt it was a good time to buy large household durables — an indicator of HVAC purchasing intent — climbed in July, new data shows.

What’s happening: In the University of Michigan’s popular monthly consumer survey, when asked whether now is a good or bad time to buy ‘major household items,’ 33 percent of respondents across all ages and income levels said it was a good time — up from 28 percent in June. 

• Meanwhile, the share of respondents who felt it was a bad time to buy during the month fell from 70 percent in June to 64 percent. The remaining three percent of respondents said they were uncertain. 

Yes but: While those figures reflect a brightening sentiment month-over-month, they remain markedly more negative than July 2025, when 44 percent of respondents felt it was a good time to buy and 53 percent said it was a bad time. 

Zoom out: The survey’s headline index, which measures broader consumer sentiment, in August fell 6.3 percent from July, according to a final reading released on Friday, and sits roughly 11 percent below a year ago.

What they’re saying: “Sentiment declines in August were seen for all political groups and were particularly acute among Republicans. Moreover, groups who are typically less-equipped to absorb increases in cost of living also exhibited stronger decreases in sentiment, including older consumers, lower- and middle-income consumers, and those with no stock holdings,” Joanne Hsu, the university’s survey director, said in a statement. 

• “With ongoing policy uncertainty including the Iran conflict, consumers anticipate further increases in gasoline prices both in the short and long run,” she added. “In addition to the pocketbook issues that have been central to consumers’ views of the economy, they are increasingly worried that prospects elsewhere in the economy could be weakening.”

Looking ahead: The University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment reading for September on Sept. 11.