HVAC distributors post sales dip in January

HARDI on Thursday released its monthly Trends report, showing that sales by its distributor members declined by 5.9 percent year-over-year in January. 

What they’re saying: “A sales decline of more than 5% is a disappointing way to start the year, but this year has one less billing day than January of 2025,” HARDI analyst Brian Loftus said in a statement. On a same-day basis, he noted, “We estimate the sales decline would have been closer to 1.4%.”

• “The early months of the year are the sleepy time for our industry where demand has been treading water,” he added.
• Yes, but: “There have been some early signs that the rate cuts are helping to wake our economy. Hopefully, those economic green shoots keep growing, like seeing leaves on trees during the next couple of months.”

Of note: HARDI distributors’ annualized sales — comparing the 12 months through January 2026 with the 12 months through January 2025 — rose 2.3 percent. 

Looking ahead: Loftus anticipates February distributor sales to be “really weak given the weather disruptions,” he told Homepros in an email. “We’ve been through our recession. At trough demand.  Waiting for a turn, and the turn would not start during Q1.”