HVAC shipments pop 30% to kick off 2025

Combined shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps jumped in January, growing 30 percent year-over-year, according to AHRI data released on Friday. 

The big picture: The release marks 10 straight months of shipment growth and a stronger start than 2024. Last January, shipments fell 21 percent compared to January 2023.

What’s happening: Manufacturers shipped 347,000 air conditioners during the month, up 40 percent from last year, while heat pump shipments climbed 19 percent to 275,000. Full breakdown

Zoom out: After the pandemic-era boom of 2020 to 2022, shipment volume fell 17 percent in 2023, with the decline expected to continue in 2024 — but it didn’t. Despite the slow start, total shipments grew 12 percent last year.  

• During the fourth quarter, shipments were particularly strong, growing 43 percent compared to 2023, partly due to the “pre-buying” of 410A equipment ahead of the January 1 manufacturing cutoff.
• Still, while there’s a lot of year left, last year’s rebound paired with this year’s start suggests that the market has recovered and is on the uptrend. 

What’s next: February’s shipment figures will be released on the second Friday of April.