HVAC shipments soar 55% in November

Shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps jumped 55 percent year-over-year in November, according to AHRI data released on Friday.

Why it matters: The increase marks eight consecutive months of growth, pushing year-to-date shipments 11 percent above 2023.

What they’re saying: “The ruling allowing inventory to be sold throughout 2025 caused people to start stuffing their pipeline,” Matt Michel, cofounder of Service Roundtable, told Homepros.

• “I don’t know if that explains all of [the growth], but it explains some of it — certainly in the fourth quarter.”

Details: Manufacturers shipped 391,000 air conditioners in November, up 56 percent from the previous year. Air-source heat pump shipments reached 315,000, compared to just 205,000 in November 2023. Full breakdown

Looking ahead: “I think the time is right [for shipments to] be on an upward glide path for ten years,” Michel added, noting that today’s shipment volumes are driven by shipments from 15 years ago. 

• Of note: Shipments grew every year between 2010 and 2022.

What’s next: December (and full-year 2024) figures will be released on the second Friday of February.