Interest rates, housing, and HVAC: A look at Jobber’s home service report
Jobber's Home Service Economic Report includes trends and insights from contractors on its platform
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To economic nerds’ delight, software company Jobber, which serves over 200,000 contractors, released its quarterly “Home Service Economic Report,” highlighting industry trends and insights.
The big picture: The home service industries, coming off pandemic highs, cooled in 2023, and continued doing so, per Jobber, through the first half of this year.
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Americans’ post-tax earnings growth has also slowed, dragging down consumer confidence — how consumers feel about the economy — and spending.
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However, experts note that with inflation slowing and potential interest rate cuts looming, spending could pick back up into 2025.
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“[Interest rate cuts should] have a particularly strong effect on housing and home services as… financed home improvement projects become more affordable,” the report says.
On housing: Despite the noise, home values keep appreciating — in the second quarter, the average U.S. home sales price was $412,300.
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Yes, but: New permits and housing starts have slowed over the past few months, “which will have an effect on homes available for purchase in the coming few quarters.”
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Because new home purchases are linked to home service spending, this presents some “headwinds,” according to Jobber, to keep an eye on going into next year.
On HVAC: Jobber’s “Contracting” segment, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical contractors, so far this year showed mixed results in revenue growth and new work scheduled.
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“Contractors had a particularly strong February and April increasing revenues 5% and 11% in those months, respectively,” the report notes.
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“However, declines in other months resulted in this segment having flat growth through the first half of 2024.”
Looking ahead: It’s anyone’s guess what’ll happen with the economy, but interest rate cuts may come as soon as next month.
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The report sums consumers as “cautiously optimistic,” and notes that “long-term, aging homes, which require significant updates, will continue to drive demand for home services.”
