Small business, HVAC get a pulse check

The US Census Bureau has kept tabs on two issues facing business owners over the past few years: inflation and supply chain disruptions. Utilizing two surveys, they’ve consistently collected data and published their findings:

1. Supply chain delays have dropped considerably since their peak

• In August 2020, 29% of small businesses reported experiencing domestic supplier delays. By April 2022, that number was 45%.

• In the latest update (July 2023), reports of delays dropped to 15%.

2. The number of businesses reporting recent price increases has declined

• Owners were asked if the prices they paid for goods and services in the last two weeks had increased, decreased, or stayed unchanged.

• In July 2022, 63% said prices increased, and 36% said no change.

• Since then, reports of increases have dropped to 40%, and no change reports jumped to 58%.

Regarding HVAC: PHCC’s most recent (Q2) Contractor Confidence Index rose 8% from Q1. Although just under half of respondents are experiencing shipping delays, more contractors are operating with a full staff than last quarter, and 62% anticipate “normal to better sales” in the future.

Looking ahead: Reuters describes US supply chains as suffering from a “long-term hangover”, however, most of the pain has subsided. Companies are going back to an efficiency mindset, including HVAC manufacturers expanding production in Mexico, which Alan Amling of the University of Tennessee says: “is a really good thing for the supply chain”.

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