Trump split on trade deal behind HVAC’s tariff exemptions 

Ahead of an upcoming renewal deadline, President Trump last week sent mixed signals about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade deal he signed in 2020 that has shielded the HVAC industry from the brunt of tariff impacts over the past year. 

Why it matters: Mexico is the U.S. HVAC industry’s largest foreign supplier, representing roughly 40 percent of the industry’s manufacturing capacity.

What’s happening: “I’m thinking about maybe we won’t be able to make a deal. I would rather not have the USMCA,” Trump told reporters in Paris after the G7 Summit. “I’d rather leave it unsigned, I’d rather have it terminated.”

• Yes, but: “I may sign it,” he added. “I would prefer not having an agreement, but I’m open to doing it; we’ll see what happens.”

Catch up quick: In March 2025, Trump issued a tariff exemption for certain products covered under the USMCA, including a range of HVAC and water heating products. 

• A clause in the agreement requires a formal review every six years — the first of which faces a July 1 deadline — allowing the countries to decide whether to continue, renegotiate, or end it altogether. 
• The U.S. and Mexico are currently engaged in discussions, though the nations are expected to miss the July 1 date, in which case the deal would remain in force but shift into a rolling review. 

State of play: The comments signal that the president “remains open to, but skeptical of, potential renewal of the trade pact,” Bloomberg wrote. (If all three countries agree to renew the deal, it extends for another 16 years.)

What they’re saying: Asked for any context or update on how the HVAC industry might be affected by Trump’s comments and the upcoming review, a White House official told Homepros, “President Trump is always seeking the best deal possible for American businesses and workers.”

What we’re watching: U.S. and Mexican officials last week concluded the second of three rounds of USMCA negotiations, with the third scheduled for late July.