Notes from Carrier’s Q4 earnings

Carrier reported Q4 earnings last week. Here’s what to know:

Numbers: $5.1 billion in revenue, flat YoY; its market cap hovers around $50 billion.

• North American residential sales dipped in the high-teens, but light commercial sales were up 20%.

• Residential sales volumes were down “high-20s” — similar to what Lennox and Trane reported.

CEO Dave Gitlin summed up the reason for the residential volume declines in one sentence: “We were coming off a few great years.”

• AHRI released its December shipment volumes, showing that central AC and heat pump shipments declined 16.7% year-over-year.

• Matt Michel (co-founder of Service Roundtable) echoed the trend in an article, writing that he expects additional contraction in the replacement market this year. 

Of note: Carrier restated it's implementing a 6% residential price increase effective March 4th, and Gitlin added, “On top of that, you’re probably looking at about a 10% or so price difference for the 454-B units versus the 410-A.”

• “I think that we’re going to start shipping [R-454B] units as early as March… I think when all is set and done this year, probably 80% [of installs] will be the 410-A and about 20% will be the 454-B,” he added.

On 2024: “[We’re] gonna be coming off a low base as we go into next year… we’re looking at high single-digit growth in the resi business for 2024,” Gitlin said — a little better than what Lennox and Trane expect.