Chances of above-normal August temps lean east: Outlook

Much of the eastern half of the U.S., along with the West Coast, faces at least a 33 percent chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures during the month

Alec Stevanovski

July 16, 2026

Image: National Weather Service

The National Weather Service (NWS) on Thursday released its preliminary temperature outlook for August.

What’s happening: Much of the eastern half of the U.S., along with the West Coast, faces at least a 33 percent chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures during the month, with ‘normal’ defined as the 30-year average.

Zoom in: A swath of the Southeast from southern Virginia through Florida has the highest chance of seeing above-normal temps, at 50 to 60 percent, while a cutout including all of North Dakota is favored to experience below-normal temperatures, per the outlook.
The remaining areas in white are a toss-up, with equal chances of temperatures being above, near, or below normal in August.

Looking ahead: The NWS will release a final August outlook on July 31.