A look at 10 years of HVAC shipments

AHRI’s Friday release of December 2024’s AC and heat pump shipments not only captures last year’s performance but also provides a complete look at the past decade. 

Why it matters: With shipments serving as the unofficial indicator of the health of the replacement market, a 10-year view shows long-term demand patterns, helping the industry gauge the years ahead. 

Total Shipments

Annual shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps 

Manufacturers shipped nearly 94 million central air conditioners and heat pumps from 2014 to 2024, with total shipments growing 41 percent over the period — from 6.8 million units in 2014 to 9.7 million last year.

While the industry’s Covid-induced spike in demand drove shipments up 23 percent from 2019 to 2022, they had already been climbing, growing 37 percent between 2015 and 2020. 

Heat Pumps

Annual shipments of air-source heat pumps

Heat pumps have emerged as the industry’s growth leader, with shipments jumping 75 percent over the decade — from 2.3 million units in 2014 to 4.1 million in 2024.

The most growth came between 2015 and 2020, when shipments rose 51 percent. Heat pump sales outpaced gas furnaces for the first time in 2022 and have maintained that lead ever since. 

Gas Furnaces

Annual shipments of gas warm air furnaces

Despite showing growth in seven out of the 10 years, gas furnaces followed a more modest trajectory. Overall shipments rose 14 percent from 2014 to 2024, moving from 2.7 million to 3.1 million units. 

Unlike other products, gas furnaces saw unique declines during the Covid years, with shipments dipping from 2019 to 2020 and again from 2021 to 2022.