June, July face tough weather comps — but a warm forecast

The U.S. faces tough weather comparisons over the next two months, with cooling demand in June and July 2024 running above normal levels, according to national weather data — though a warm summer forecast may help.

What’s happening: U.S. cooling demand last June jumped 44 percent compared to 2023, as measured by Cooling Degree Days (CDDs), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was also 15 percent above what the agency considers “normal” for June. 

• Regionally, the Pacific and Middle Atlantic saw CDDs surge over 400 and 160 percent year-over-year, respectively.
• July told a similar story — while CDDs were flat compared to 2023, they ran seven percent above normal levels. 

What they’re saying: “If temps are normal,” as HARDI analyst Brian Loftus told Homepros in May, “sales could be off… It’s possible to make progress, but [it] may not look like it at first when the first part of summer 2024 was warmer than normal across most of the country.”

Yes, but: All 50 states have at least a 33 percent chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures through August, according to the agency’s seasonal outlook — particularly the Northeast and Southwest, where the figure is over 50 percent. 

• What to watch: It may be “easier to attain unit growth during [July and August],” Loftus added, referring to cooling demand during those months running closer to normal than June last year. 

What’s next: June cooling demand figures — the forecast’s first test — will be released during the first week of July.