February HVAC shipments snap 10-month growth streak

Shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps fell slightly in February, according to AHRI data released on Friday. 

Why it matters: The release marks the end of a 10-month streak of continuous shipment growth. 

What’s happening: Manufacturers shipped just over 636,000 air conditioners and heat pumps during the month, a three percent drop from February 2024. 

• Heat pump shipments, specifically, increased by three percent year-over-year. 
• Full breakdown

Of note: While February saw a slight decline, year-to-date shipments are up 11 percent compared to 2024, driven primarily by a strong January, in which shipments grew 30 percent year-over-year. 

Zoom out: February’s drop likely reflects a tapering of 410A “pre-buying” activity ahead of the A2L transition, which drove a 43 percent jump in Q4 shipments and contributed to January’s performance — a trend manufacturers have confirmed. 

• “It’ll kind of start to mitigate and be gone, fully gone by the second quarter,” said Lennox CFO Michael Quenzer in January, referring to inventories of 410A equipment. 
• Carrier, Lennox, and Trane will report Q1 earnings in the coming weeks and likely provide clarity on the quarter’s shipment trends. 

What’s next: March’s figures will be released on the second Friday of May.