Metals prices hit near-decade high

The prices of key HVAC metals — copper, steel, and aluminum — have risen meaningfully over the past year. 

What’s happening: The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index, which provides a directional read on cost trends, rose from roughly $412 in April 2025 to over $580 by the end of January 2026, a 41 percent increase to just below its 10-year high.

What they’re saying: “For HVACR businesses, this upward trend suggests that embedded input costs within equipment and system components may face renewed upward pressure in the months ahead,” HARDI wrote in a recent blog post. 

• “While these effects are rarely immediate, sustained metals inflation tends to narrow pricing flexibility and heighten sensitivity to cost assumptions on equipment-intensive or longer-duration projects,” it added.  

The big picture: Electrification, grid expansion, and data center construction are collectively driving metal demand, while uncertainty around trade policy has increased volatility.

• The HVAC supply chain is challenging because there are so many different parts, and it’s difficult to know what to stockpile, Lance Saunders, a Supply Chain Management professor at the University of Tennessee, recently told Homepros.
• “It’s thousands and thousands of active SKUs,” he said, adding there’s “almost zero visibility into your installed base” to predict what parts may fail. 

What we’re watching: “In 2026, metals pricing is likely to become a more visible consideration in distributor pricing, inventory, and customer strategy,” HARDI continued. 

• Yes, but: A recent lawsuit challenges how the federal government is applying the 50 percent steel and aluminum tariff imposed in June 2025, arguing that U.S. Customs and Border Protection is improperly assessing duties on the full value of imported products, rather than the value of their raw material content.