Charted: 20 years of HVAC shipments

U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in 2025 totaled just over 7.7 million units, a 20 percent decline from roughly 9.7 million in 2024, according to the latest AHRI data. 

But a five-year view tells a more complete story. 

What’s happening: Following the industry’s Covid-induced demand spike — and a subsequent hangover in 2023 — pre-buying activity ahead of the January 1, 2025, cutoff for manufacturing R-410A systems contributed to shipments growing double digits year-over-year each month from July through December 2024, setting up a comparison that exacerbated 2025’s decline. 

The big picture: While annual shipment volumes have grown steadily since the Great Financial Crisis, 2025 saw the fewest combined units shipped since 2016.

Chart source: AHRI