HVAC shipments fell 20% in 2025
Just over 7.7 million combined air conditioners and heat pumps were shipped during the year, down from roughly 9.6 million in 2024
Image: Adobe
HVAC manufacturers shipped roughly 408,000 combined central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in December 2025, according to AHRI data released Friday.
What’s happening: That’s a 21.4 percent year-over-year decline, marking the seventh consecutive month when combined shipments fell over 20 percent. (The figure includes residential and commercial equipment.)
State of play: In 2025, just over 7.7 million combined units were shipped, a 20 percent decline from roughly 9.6 million in 2024.
- Yes, but: Comparisons to 2024 are tricky: AC and heat pump shipments grew double digits each month from July to December, as the industry stocked up on equipment ahead of the January 2025 refrigerant cutoff.
Of note: ACs outsold heat pumps for the full year 2025, but heat pumps outsold ACs each month from September to December.
- Meanwhile, furnaces haven’t been abandoned: In 2025, shipments of gas furnaces grew four percent year-over-year.
What we’re watching: Industry observers have described the market as finding a bottom and moving toward stabilization, with expectations that distributor destocking will end and the housing market will improve this year.
📬 Get our stories in your inbox
Keep reading
National plumbing champion on his big win
A Q&A with Ian Edelbacher, who recently won the Plumbing National Championship, as part of ServiceTitan's Elite Trades Championship Series
Austin Helms on building a perpetual company and hitting $20 million along the way
Notes on growth, retaining talent, and building a perpetual company
Dandelion Energy eyes mainstream geothermal
The company is pushing for geothermal heating and cooling to be “the standard in new home construction”