HVAC shipments fell 20% in 2025

HVAC manufacturers shipped roughly 408,000 combined central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in December 2025, according to AHRI data released Friday. 

What’s happening: That’s a 21.4 percent year-over-year decline, marking the seventh consecutive month when combined shipments fell over 20 percent. (The figure includes residential and commercial equipment.)

State of play: In 2025, just over 7.7 million combined units were shipped, a 20 percent decline from roughly 9.6 million in 2024. 

• Yes, but: Comparisons to 2024 are tricky: AC and heat pump shipments grew double digits each month from July to December, as the industry stocked up on equipment ahead of the January 2025 refrigerant cutoff. 

Of note: ACs outsold heat pumps for the full year 2025, but heat pumps outsold ACs each month from September to December. 

• Meanwhile, furnaces haven’t been abandoned: In 2025, shipments of gas furnaces grew four percent year-over-year.

What we’re watching: Industry observers have described the market as finding a bottom and moving toward stabilization, with expectations that distributor destocking will end and the housing market will improve this year.