AC, heat pump efficiency mix diverges, distributor sales show

HVAC distributors’ unitary equipment volumes, for the 12 months through January 2026, were down an estimated 12 percent compared to the same period a year prior, HARDI shared in a March email to its members.

What’s happening: “Sales of ducted air conditioners and air source heat pumps are the primary contributors to the decline in unitary volumes, decreasing by 18 and 14 percent, respectively, over the past 12 months,” wrote HARDI’s Grace Helser.

• Yes, but: The pace of decline in the three-month rate, in particular, “has slowed over the past two months, suggesting that conditions are beginning to stabilize,” she added. 

Between the lines: Driven in part by economic conditions over the past year, including high mortgage rates and weak consumer sentiment, according to the association, the share of base-efficiency air conditioners (13-14 SEER) among distributor sales grew 35 percent from June 2024 to January 2026. 

• However, the opposite trend has occurred for air-source heat pumps, where the share of 13-14 SEER equipment has fallen steadily since January 2024.

What they’re saying: “Our suspicion is that the negative AC mix-shift is primarily due to sticker shock and the more difficult position consumers are finding themselves [in],” HARDI’s Tim Fisher told Homepros in an email.

• “As for why ACs have gone negative but HPs haven’t, I think this is because the person buying a heat pump is a different consumer than the average AC buyer,” he added. 
• “I’d also expect the average heat pump buyer to be in a higher income bracket or have more disposable income than the average AC buyer and thus be less sensitive to higher prices.”

Of note: The data reflects voluntary submissions from nearly 80 distributors and is “more biased” toward residential, according to Fisher.