NWS issues prelim November temperature outlook

The National Weather Service (NWS) on Thursday released its preliminary temperature outlook for November.

• NWS outlooks show the likelihood that the average temperature for a given month will fall above, near, or below normal across the U.S., with “normal” based on conditions between 1991 and 2020.

What’s happening: Thursday’s release shows the northern half of the mainland U.S. as having the highest chances of experiencing above-normal temperatures during the month, while a band of southern states centered on Texas faces equal chances of temps being above, near, or below normal.

• No states are projected to experience below-normal temperatures in November.

Zoom out: Heating degree days (HDDs) serve as the primary measure of heating demand. An analysis of population-weighted HDD data from 2020 to 2025 found that all six Novembers were warmer than the 30-year average across the U.S.

• This year’s comps: In November 2025, states in the eastern half of the U.S. saw year-over-year increases in HDDs, reflecting colder temperatures than in November 2024, while the western half of the country saw HDDs decline, reflecting warmer temperatures.

What’s next: A final November temperature outlook will be released on October 31.