AC and Heat Pump shipments off to slower start than last year

AHRI on April 12th released February’s AC and Heat Pump shipments, showing this year is off to a slower start than last. 

The numbers: Year-to-date shipments, which include January and February, because shipments trail by two months, totaled just over 1.1 million, down 9.7% from last year.

• In February alone, however, over 650,000 units were shipped, up 1.2% from last February and 37% higher than January. 

• Keep in mind, shipments are national and include new construction. 

What’s happening: The consensus among industry experts is that shipment volumes will mirror last year and decline this year, but an upward trend could start next year.

• Per Matt Michel, the replacement market can be somewhat accurately forecasted by looking at shipments 15 years ago, assuming the average unit lasts 15 years.

• In 2009, shipments bottomed after dropping by 40% from 2005, making it the worst year on record in the past twenty years.

• “You cannot replace what was not installed 15 years ago, more or less,” Michel says.

However, after 2009, a 12-year growth run started, with shipments more than doubling, from 5.1 million in 2010 to 10.3 million in 2022.

• Using the same 15-year logic, this suggests next year could actually be the start of a turnaround. 

Looking ahead: Despite the slower start in shipments, some predict that this summer will be “unusually hot,” possibly one of the hottest on record, making summer shipment volumes worth watching.