What you’re saying: The year ahead

Our crystal ball guy closed up shop for the holidays, so we asked you for your one-line industry predictions for next year. Here’s what you wrote in, anonymized and condensed for clarity:

“Installs down. Service up. Cheaper to fix ‘em now.”

“Contractors that achieve Know-Like-Trust at scale will win preference before pricing is discussed, while those without brand gravity will increasingly be surfaced only as the cheapest option, eroding profitability with every job.”

“Power of payments. With credit tightening and money shrinking because of the Fed stockpiling, what are contractors doing for low to mid-tier credit-rated customers?”

“Next year is going to feel like a land grab for the shops that move fast and communicate clearly, because homeowners still want certainty and speed even when things cost more. With AI, regulation changes, and advertising algorithms in flux, do not discount the blocking and tackling, do the simple things well.”

“The money guys will start eating each other. Bigger PE groups buying smaller ones, and/or mergers.”

“In 2026, U.S. heat pump unit sales will continue to expand their market share lead over furnace unit sales, and, for the first time ever, get within 15% of air conditioning unit sales.”

“In 2026, we will see a big jump in buyouts and mergers as companies try to grow faster.”

“Small, family-owned, 4-year-old, residential HVAC company here. Sept/Oct were rough for us, but Nov. 2025 was the best Nov. we’ve had (revenue up 55% YOY)… We exceeded our $2M goal for the year in late October… The market/economy is definitely down, times are tight for people, but growth is still possible, especially for us smaller guys.”

“Brand recognition will matter more than ever!”

“HVAC: Cautiously optimistic on the rebound of install vs repair work. A lot of headwinds at the macro-level… control your own destiny. Plumbing: Demand call volume bounced back nicely in Q4, and looking for the same in Q1 of 2026.”

“We’re going to have a banner year for M&A activity with some of the largest private equity-backed platforms going to market at the same time. It’s going to be a rush to the exits. You’re going to see several $50M+ EBITDA platforms trade for 17x+ next year.”

“Today’s contractor isn’t choosing the brand anymore, the brand is choosing the contractor through the training, support, transparency, and reliability they consistently deliver… If manufacturers and distributors want loyalty in 2026, they’ll earn it by partnering with contractors to improve their business model, resulting in more profitable sales.”

“Used part sales are going to become a thing. HVAC junk yards.”

“The contractor that is the most transparent in their marketing and makes it easiest to do business with is going to win.”

“Can someone just do a successful IPO already.”

“We expect we’re going to see average replacement prices dip as a result of the repeal of the tax credits, which have helped homeowners subsidize higher-efficiency heat pump installations. As the economy continues to weaken, and the job market gets tougher for many Americans, we’re expecting a greater push from homeowners to make repairs, rather than replacement, as wallets tighten… We grew 46% this year over last year. Our goals for 2026 are just 25% growth. The fact is, whether the government admits it or continues to juke the stats, the economy is slowing, and the majority of homeowners have less money to spend on things like HVAC replacements. Replacement growth will likely be slower than service growth, and this is going to harm some of the more sales-forward, install-centric companies.”

“AI vendor consolidation.”

“Higher-end consumers will continue to do well, but I’m concerned about the lower end. Some consolidation among private equity platforms themselves. The trades will keep getting sexier in pop culture. And I’ll be wrong, but hopefully ‘AI’ as a percentage of total words spoken goes down.”

“2026 will be unforgiving. Rising costs, tighter labor, and smarter customers will expose weak operators fast — only disciplined companies will grow… 2026 won’t reward effort — it will reward structure, accountability, and leaders willing to make hard calls.”