AC efficiency mix shifts lower, distributor sales show

Amid a months-long decline streak in HVAC manufacturer shipments, recent distributor data suggests consumers are leaning more toward base-efficiency systems, industry association HARDI noted in a Wednesday member email.

What’s happening: “There has been a relative step back in the percentage of higher efficiency systems sold compared to this time last year,” HARDI’s Grace Helser wrote, referring to the efficiency mix of distributors’ air conditioner sales, in particular. 

• Based on a rolling three-month average, air conditioners rated 15 SEER or higher in October 2024 represented 59 percent of distributors’ total AC sales, per HARDI.
• By October 2025, the latest available data, that figure had fallen 13 percentage points to 46 percent.

But, but, but: The trend hasn’t shown up for air-source heat pumps; instead, there’s been a shift away from base-efficiency products, Helser noted, “with the largest segments being 15 SEER and 17+ SEER [air-source heat pumps] sold through the channel.”

• Of note: A HARDI spokesperson told Homepros that the sales data — a national snapshot — is “heavily biased” toward residential, with a “very, very small fragment” of commercial volume.