HVAC shipments crater 49% in October, a record drop

HVAC shipments in October declined at the steepest rate on record, surpassing the previous mark set just one month prior.

What’s happening: U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps during the month fell 49.4 percent year-over-year, according to AHRI data released Friday. (The figure includes both residential and commercial equipment, excluding furnaces.)

• Why it matters: October marks the sharpest single-month year-over-year drop since 2010, the furthest available data, topping September’s 42 percent decline. It’s also the fifth consecutive month when shipments declined by more than 20 percent. 

Zoom in: Air conditioner shipments, in particular, fell 55 percent year-over-year during the month, while heat pump shipments declined by 43 percent. 

But, but, but: The drop was amplified by a tough comparison. In October 2024, manufacturers’ combined AC and heat pump shipments grew 53 percent year-over-year — the biggest single-month gain in over three years — as distributors stocked up ahead of the January 2025 refrigerant phaseout. 

• Meanwhile, U.S. distributor inventories remain elevated amid “flattish demand” this year, HARDI noted in early December, weighing on new orders and exacerbating the decline. 

State of play: Combined shipments from January through October, totaling 6.96 million units, are now down 17.7 percent compared to the same period last year. 

What’s next: November faces an even tougher comparison than October, as combined shipments grew 55 percent year-over-year in November 2024. The month’s figures will be released in early January.