Carrier residential sales fall 38%, unit volume ‘over’ 40%

Carrier on Thursday reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings.

What’s happening: The company’s ‘Americas’ revenue declined 17 percent year-over-year during the quarter, weighed down by its residential sales, in particular, which fell 38 percent. 

• Meanwhile, residential unit volume was down “over 40 percent” year-over-year, CFO Patrick Goris said. He added, however, “We believe that field destocking is now substantially behind us.”

Of note: While executives projected the decline on the company’s last earnings call, “we all got surprised by the magnitude” of the overall downturn during the second half of 2025, CEO David Gitlin said. (Carrier’s residential unit volume fell a similar 40 percent year-over-year in Q3.)

What they’re saying: “Between 2020 and 2024, our industry averaged 9.7 million units [shipped],” Gitlin noted, based on both AHRI and internal data. “Last year, we estimate our industry delivered about 7.5 million units.”

What we’re watching: Carrier anticipates that volumes will fall another 10 to 15 percent to roughly 6.5 million units this year — down 20 to 25 percent year-over-year in the first half, then flat in the second half.

• “We’re assuming at the highest level that industry conditions are the same as last year,” Gitlin said. “So, no improvement on interest rates, consumer confidence, or new or existing home sales.”

Yes, but: He suggested that ‘repair over replace’ will not be a long-term trend for three reasons: Rising repair costs, an eventual pickup in home sales, and R-410A becoming “more expensive” and “harder to access” over time.