February’s temperature outlook

Most of the U.S. faces equal chances of temperatures being above or below ‘normal’ — their 30-year average — during the month

Alec Stevanovski

January 26, 2026

Image: NOAA

The National Weather Service (NWS) has published its February U.S. temperature outlook.

What’s happening: Most of the country faces equal chances of temperatures being above or below ‘normal’ — their 30-year average — during the month.

A swath of states across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, however, is set to experience below-normal temperatures, per the outlook.
And much of the Southeast, along with the southern parts of California, Arizona, and New Mexico, are the only areas where temps are projected to be above normal.

The big picture: February’s outlook echoes the broader first-quarter outlook published by the NWS in mid-December.