Heat pump shipments have started outpacing air conditioners, report highlights

Air-source heat pumps outsold gas furnaces for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 — and started outselling air conditioners, the nonprofit Building Decarbonization Coalition (BDC) pointed out in its latest quarterly report, published this week. 

What’s happening: The BDC, which focuses on cutting pollution across U.S. buildings, highlighted AHRI data showing that on a monthly basis, heat pump shipments eclipsed air conditioner shipments for the first time in September 2025, a trend that continued through the end of the year. 

• “That crossover may not hold through the summer, when air conditioner demand peaks, but it is still a notable marker of the market’s direction,” the report says. “If that trajectory continues, annual heat pump sales could surpass annual air conditioner sales within the next few years.” 

Of note: The latest available AHRI data shows that the trend continued in January 2026, when U.S. shipments of heat pumps totaled nearly 230,000 units, compared to roughly 210,000 air conditioners. 

What they’re saying: The BDC’s report “confirms the durability of the HVAC industry’s transition away from gas furnaces and air conditioners to heat pumps that can both heat and cool buildings,” Kevin Carbonnier, Associate Director of Analytics, told Homepros via email. 

• “This transition offers HVAC contractors an excellent opportunity to grow their business if they position themselves to meet customers’ growing demand for the reliable, affordable, and comfortable heating and cooling delivered by heat pumps,” he added. 

By the way: The BDC also found that gas utility bills rose 60 percent faster than electric bills in 2025, blaming the trend on the cost of building infrastructure for the delivery of natural gas. 

• About two-thirds of a typical household’s gas bill now goes toward projects like pipeline replacements, rather than the gas itself, according to its analysis.
• If utilities hadn’t tripled spending on such infrastructure since 2010, the study claims, customers would have saved $130 billion (or $1,723 per gas household).