Heat pumps lead space-heating market share in first half of 2026: Report

The nonprofit Building Decarbonization Coalition (BDC) has released its latest quarterly update, including HVAC-focused market trends and a legislative roundup. 

What’s happening: Using AHRI shipment data, BDC’s Momentum report found that heat pumps accounted for 58 percent of space-heating equipment shipments from January through June of this year. 

• That matches the first-half record set in 2024, despite the federal 25C tax credit — which partly subsidized qualifying heat pump installations — expiring at the end of 2025. 

Yes, and: The report also found that state legislatures have passed 41 bills pertaining to heat pumps and other building decarbonization-related issues since the beginning of this year. 

• Most recently, California passed a bill to streamline heat pump permitting in the state, as Homepros reported. 

State of play: According to Google data, the phrase “heat pumps” has seen an 80 percent increase in search interest over the past five years, compared to the previous five, the report noted. 

Go deeper: Affordability is driving policymaking, according to BDC.

• “As of this quarter, electric and gas utilities are requesting a combined $17.2 billion in rate increases, even as energy costs surged 16 percent in the last 12 months — nearly 5x more than the rate of inflation,” the coalition writes. 
• BDC contends that costs are up largely because utilities spend billions annually on gas infrastructure such as pipeline expansion, replacement, and maintenance. 

What they’re saying: “Households and legislators appear to be reaching the same conclusion: clean heating and cooling can help rein in rising utility bills,” Kevin Carbonnier, Associate Director of Analytics at BDC, said in a statement. 

• “In the first half of 2026, heat pumps led the space-heating equipment market even after the federal tax credit expired. In state capitols, legislators concerned about energy costs are turning to heat pumps and thermal energy networks to bring their constituents affordable heating and cooling.”

Full report