HVAC distributor sales dip, contractor payments quicken in February

HVAC distributors posted a slight revenue dip in February, according to HARDI’s latest Trends report, which includes data from nearly 500 distributors with over 5,000 branches nationwide. 

Why it matters: The figure, which serves as a proxy for contractor sales, follows two months of revenue growth, from December (the strongest month of 2024) to January.

What’s happening: HARDI distributors reported a 1.6 percent decline in February sales compared to last year.

• While the dip is a “little disappointing,” per HARDI’s Brian Loftus, it was primarily due to February having one less billing day than last year. 
• “With the same number of billing days, we estimate there would have been sales growth of 3.3%,” Loftus said, adding that in this case, February would have been the sixth consecutive month of revenue growth. 

Zoom in: Contractors are paying their bills faster, with the ‘Days Sales Outstanding’ (DSO) — a measure of how quickly bills get paid — dropping for the second month in a row. 

• The DSO fell from around 42 days in February 2024 to less than 38 this year, similar to January’s improvement. 

The big picture: The report comes amid a period of increasing economic uncertainty, as consumer sentiment has fallen and President Trump plans to announce a new slate of tariffs on Wednesday. 

• Yes, but: It also highlights a recent drop in the 10-year bond yield, from 4.7 to 4.2 percent. 
• Since mortgage rates, which affect replacement demand, typically follow this trend, “[T]he recent decline will help support the housing market while the broader economy battles the tariff headwinds,” Loftus added.