HVAC shipments dip in March, remain positive over Q1

Shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps fell slightly in March, compared to last year, but remained positive over the first quarter, according to AHRI data released on Friday. 

What’s happening: Manufacturers shipped nearly 819,000 total air conditioners and heat pumps in March, a two percent decrease compared to March 2024. 

• The decline stemmed from air conditioner shipments, in particular, which fell seven percent compared to last year, as heat pump shipments increased four percent during the same period. 

But, but, but: Year-to-date, the numbers remain positive, with manufacturers shipping roughly 2.08 million total air conditioners and heat pumps through the end of March, up 5.2 percent compared to the first quarter of last year. 

The big picture: March marked the second consecutive month of declining total shipments, following a three percent dip in February.

• This likely reflects cooling R-410A unit pre-buying activity surrounding the A2L transition, which drove shipment volumes up 43 percent in the fourth quarter of last year versus 2023 and contributed to a 30 percent pop in January.
• Manufacturers expect R-410A inventories to be depleted by the end of this quarter, with R-454B units making up the lion’s share of Q1 sales, according to executives on recent earnings calls. 

What’s next: April shipment figures will be released on the second Friday of June.