HVAC shipments drop 29% annually in January, but tick up from December

HVAC manufacturers shipped just over 440,000 combined central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in January, according to AHRI data released Friday, which includes both residential and commercial equipment.

What’s happening: That’s a 29 percent year-over-year decline, marking the eighth consecutive month when combined shipments fell over 20 percent. 

• Yes, but: The figure grew eight percent from December 2025, when manufacturers shipped roughly 408,000 combined units.

Go deeper: Shipments of air conditioners, in particular, fell 39 percent year-over-year during the month, while heat pump shipments declined by 16.5 percent. 

The big picture: The release kicks off the new year, following 2025, when total combined A/C and heat pump shipments fell 20 percent compared to 2024, driven in part by pre-buying activity ahead of the January 1, 2025, cutoff for manufacturing R-410A systems, which pushed shipments up double-digits year-over-year throughout the second half of 2024.