HVAC’s halftime report: 5 numbers to watch

With the first half of the year behind us, as the new administration implements a series of changes and the transition to a new class of refrigerants moves along, here’s a snapshot of five HVAC industry indicators based on the latest, publicly available data. 

2.1%

The year-over-year increase in wholesale prices for residential and commercial HVAC equipment as of May, according to the producer price index, which measures the “average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.” The figure is up 48 percent compared to May 2020. 

419

The cumulative number of nationwide cooling degree days, the primary measure of cooling demand, from January through June — a five percent decrease from last year, though nine percent above ‘normal,’ according to the National Weather Service. 

5.5%

The total increase in manufacturers’ combined HVAC shipments, including central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps, from January through April, compared to the same period last year, per AHRI. May’s figures are expected to be published on Friday, July 11. 

58%

The share of HVAC distributors’ total sales that central ducted systems using A2L refrigerants represented in May, according to HARDI data — a more than tenfold increase from November 2024, when the figure sat below five percent. 

4.03 million

The annualized number of U.S. existing home sales, a proxy for replacement demand, in May, per the National Association of Realtors — marking a 31 percent drop from May 2021. However, the number of homes for sale or under contract at the end of the month rose 20 percent from last year.