Above-normal temps predicted for most of U.S. this winter: Outlook

Most of the U.S. is set to face above-normal temperatures through January, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). 

What’s happening: The agency’s ‘seasonal temperature outlook,’ issued Oct. 16, predicts a 33 to 50 percent chance of temperatures across the country being above their long-term average over the next 2.5 months. 

• The exception, per the outlook, is the group of states along the Canadian border, which has equal chances of facing above, near, or below-normal temperatures. 
• Meanwhile, in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, the likelihood of above-normal temps this winter sits at least 50 percent. 
• None of the lower 48 states is predicted to face below-normal temperatures.

The big picture: The outlook could mean a weaker heating season compared to last winter, when nationwide heating demand in both December 2024 and January 2025 grew 12 percent from the prior year, respectively.