Charted: A decade of heat pump shipments

U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps are up 5.5 percent from January through April, compared to last year, according to the latest AHRI data. 

But the figure masks a key discrepancy: Air conditioner shipments, in particular, fell three of those four months, while heat pump shipments grew every month. And longer-term data tells an even stronger story. 

5 years

Air-source heat pump shipments, 12-month moving average. 

As of April 2025, the 12-month moving average of heat pump shipments sits 35 percent higher than in April 2020, as volumes continue rebounding from a decline that ran from 2023 into 2024, according to AHRI data. 

10 years

Total annual shipments of air-source heat pumps. 

Over the past decade, heat pumps have emerged as the industry’s growth leader compared to air conditioners and gas furnaces, with shipments climbing 75 percent, from 2.3 million units in 2014 to 4.1 million in 2024. 

Heat pumps eclipsed gas furnaces in units shipped for the first time in 2022 and have maintained that lead ever since. 

What they’re saying: “[H]eat pumps are one of the most exciting technologies to hit the residential energy market in decades,” Scott Rosenberg, CEO of electrification-focused data company 257 tells Homepros. 

• “Most of the existing systems are first-generation, low-efficiency models that perform well in warm climates,” he adds. “What’s happening now is a second wave of adoption, driven by high-efficiency, cold-weather heat pumps.” 

What to watch: Despite the momentum, the Trump administration this year has dealt a couple of blows to federal programs that support heat pump adoption. 

• A January executive order signed by President Trump has thrown two federal, HVAC-focused rebate programs into limbo, with just 11 states, including D.C., currently having active programs, as Homepros previously reported. 
• Meanwhile, two consumer-facing federal tax credits that also incentivize heat pump purchases are expected to sunset after this year, as both the House and Senate’s version of the ‘big, beautiful bill’ — which Congress aims to have signed into law by July 4 — proposes terminating them. 

But, but, but: While regulatory uncertainty persists, a promising replacement outlook remains over the next five years, as the nearly 12 million heat pumps shipped between 2010 and 2015, according to AHRI, reach the end of their useful lives.