Fall forecast: Warmer than usual

Fall temperatures will probably be warmer than usual across most of the U.S., according to the National Weather Service’s seasonal temperature outlook for October through December.  

What’s happening: There’s a 60 to 70 percent chance that temperatures will be above normal in New Mexico and West Texas during the months. 

• For the rest of the Southwest, plus New England and South Florida, the likelihood sits at 50 to 60 percent, per the outlook. 
• Only along the Canadian border are there equal chances of temps being above, near, or below normal; everywhere else faces a 33 to 50 percent chance that temperatures will be warmer than usual. 
• Full map

Why it matters: The outlook could mean a delayed start to heating season. 

The big picture: According to the EPA, since 1896, average fall temperatures across the contiguous 48 states have increased by about 1.6°F.