HVAC distributor sales grow in July, despite economic uncertainty

HARDI last week released its latest monthly Trends report, showing that its distributors’ sales grew 6.8 percent year-over-year in July.

• Why it matters: Distributor sales serve as a general proxy for contractor sales.

What they’re saying: “Five of our regions achieved double-digit sales growth during July 2025,” HARDI analyst Brian Loftus said in a statement.

• “The outlier was the Western region, where cooling degree days were 12% below normal this month, versus July of 2024, which had 14% more cooling degree days than normal.”

The big picture: The economy has not been a demand catalyst this year, Loftus notes in an email to Homepros. 

• “[E]xisting home sales flat; new construction completions flat/down; employment growth has slowed considerably; heavy uncertainty weighing on business/consumer confidence,” he writes.
• Under those conditions, however, “sales growth in most of the country was pretty good,” he adds.

What we’re watching: HARDI distributors’ annual sales growth has bounced between 3.3 and 4.3 percent this year, according to the report.  

• Despite the economic situation, “higher prices being passed through could push distributors’ annual sales growth beyond this upper edge during the balance of 2025,” Loftus added.