HVAC shipments fall 22% in June

U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps slumped in June, according to AHRI data released Friday. 

What’s happening: Manufacturers shipped nearly 841,000 combined units during the month, down 22 percent from the same month last year — and down slightly from May, when shipments totaled just over 862,000.

• Why it matters: The release marks the first time since 2010 — the earliest monthly data available — that HVAC manufacturers shipped fewer ACs and heat pumps in June than in May.

Zoom in: Air conditioner shipments, in particular, fell 26 percent year-over-year, while heat pump shipments declined by 16 percent — heat pumps’ first monthly drop this year.

• Similarly, the year-to-date figure had been positive every month through May, but Friday’s release marks a turnaround, with combined shipments from January through June now down three percent compared to the same period last year. 

The big picture: June wrapped the second quarter, when manufacturers saw declines in North American residential unit volumes — Carrier and Lennox, for instance, each reported single-digit drops — attributing part of the trend to elevated inventory levels, as Homepros previously reported. 

• “As anticipated, [residential] sales volumes declined, mainly because contractors and distributors are still selling through their R-410A inventory,” Lennox CFO Michael Quenzer said on July 23. 
• “[A]s far as we are currently aware, U.S. distribution inventories of residential products remain high,” added Daikin’s Koichi Takahashi on August 5.

Between the lines: While there isn’t publicly available data showing nationwide distributor inventories, HARDI analyst Brian Loftus reaffirmed the trend.

• June’s shipments were indeed impacted by “[R-410A] pre-buy related to the equipment transition… because of uncertainty around OEM abilities to provide R-454B equipment,” he tells Homepros in an email, adding that there’s “plenty of inventory in the channel.” 

Yes, but: Despite the situation, R-410A inventory is normalizing, Quenzer added, with Daikin estimating it will “approach almost zero at the end of September or later.”

What’s next: July’s shipment figures will be released on the second Friday of September.