Heat pumps buoy HVAC shipments despite May slide

U.S. sell-in shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps fell in May, but remain positive year-to-date, according to AHRI data released Friday. 

What’s happening: HVAC manufacturers shipped just over 862,000 combined air conditioners and heat pumps during the month, a 5.4 percent decrease from May 2024.

• Zoom in: Air conditioner shipments, in particular, drove the decline, falling 13 percent year-over-year, while heat pump shipments grew six percent.
• The combined year-to-date figure — from January through May — is up 2.8 percent from the same period last year. 

The big picture: Heat pumps have carried the industry’s total shipment growth this year, with May marking the fourth consecutive month when air conditioner shipments declined compared to last year, while heat pump shipments grew.

• Meanwhile, manufacturers have shipped 24 percent more heat pumps than gas furnaces through May of this year, per the data, continuing a trend that’s now held for four years running, since 2022. 

The intrigue: Though not a perfect relationship, HVAC distributor sales also fell in May, partly due to cooler weather, according to HARDI data published July 2. Nationwide cooling degree days during the month dropped over 20 percent compared to last May.

What’s next: June’s shipment figures will be released on the second Friday of August.