HVAC shipments fall 46% in November

U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in November 2025 fell 46 percent year-over-year, according to AHRI data released Friday. 

What’s happening: HVAC manufacturers shipped just over 379,000 combined units during the month, down from roughly 707,000 in November 2024. (The figure includes both residential and commercial equipment.)

• The big picture: While the decline is noteworthy — marking the sixth consecutive month of over 20 percent year-over-year drops — it was largely expected, as the month faced a tough comparison to November 2024, when combined shipments grew 55 percent from the previous year. 

Zoom in: Air conditioner shipments, in particular, fell 54 percent year-over-year during the month, while heat pump shipments declined by 37 percent. 

• Year-to-date: Combined shipments from January to November 2025 totaled 7.34 million units, down 20 percent compared to the same period in 2024. 

What’s next: December faces a more modest year-over-year comparison than November did. The month’s shipment figures will be released in early February.