HVAC wholesale prices rise 1.8% in June, extend multi-year climb

U.S. wholesale prices of HVAC equipment in June rose 1.8 percent from May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July 16, and are up 4.2 percent year-over-year. 

• Catch up quick: The data comes from an industry-specific ‘Producer Price Index,’ which measures the average change in selling prices that domestic manufacturers receive for their products.

Why it matters: The release marks the figure’s biggest monthly jump since January of this year. 

What’s happening: The Bureau of Labor Statistics also breaks out HVAC wholesale prices by ‘Primary Products’ and ‘Parts and Accessories,’ via two separate indices. 

• As of June, wholesale prices for Primary Products are up 4.2 percent year-over-year, while Parts and Accessories prices have risen more modestly, increasing by 1.6 percent from June 2024. 

The big picture: Since January 2021, one month after President Trump signed the AIM Act, which kicked off today’s refrigerant transition, the producer price index for HVAC equipment is up 47 percent. 

Yes, but: Despite wholesale prices trending upward, demand this year has remained steady compared to last year, as measured by manufacturers’ shipment volumes.

• Combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps from January through May are up 2.8 percent compared to the same period last year, while gas furnace shipments have grown by nearly 19 percent, according to the latest AHRI data.

Between the lines: While there isn’t a government-backed index that specifically tracks changes in consumer retail prices for HVAC equipment, rising wholesale prices have put in focus consumers’ ability to afford replacements. 

State of play: Financing applications for service work grew 37 percent from January 2023 to December 2024, based on FTL Finance data, though other metrics paint a mixed picture, as Homepros previously reported. 

• Both consumer spending and personal incomes have increased by roughly 20 percent over the past five years, and the unemployment rate remains low. 
• Meanwhile, the average U.S. FICO score, a key indicator of consumers’ ability to obtain financing, remains “near historical highs,” according to FICO’s Tommy Lee.

What to watch: July wholesale price data will be released in August, and its AHRI shipment figures will be released in September.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correct a mistake in the final paragraph.