Trump holds cards as China tariff pause nears end

A 90-day tariff pause on China is set to expire Tuesday, with rates reverting to April levels unless the two countries reach a deal or agree to an extension — though officials from both sides have said an extension is likely. 

Why it matters: China shipped $6 billion worth of HVAC and water heating products to the U.S. in 2024, according to HARDI data shared with Homepros, making it the industry’s second-largest exporter behind Mexico. 

State of play: The Trump administration in May lowered a previously imposed 145 percent tariff on the country to 30 percent until August 12, buying time to hash out a larger deal. 

• Zoom in: Nearly half of all HVAC and water heating imports from China, including compressors, motors, and heat exchangers, according to AHRI, face a separate 25 percent tariff imposed in 2018, bringing their current rate to 55 percent. 

What’s happening: Both countries have expressed willingness to extend the pause; however, President Trump “has final say on all the trade deals,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on July 29. 

• “[Bessent] had a very good meeting with China,” Trump said the same day. “We’ll either approve it or not. But he felt very good about the meeting.”
• As of early Monday morning, no official call has been made. 

Looking ahead: While a decision is expected at any point before Tuesday, talks are set to continue even if the president chooses not to extend the deadline. 

• “I would think that it’s not the end of the world if these snapback tariffs are on for anywhere from a few days to a few weeks, as long as the countries are moving forward and trying to negotiate in good faith,” Bessent added.

Editor’s note: In the afternoon on Monday, August 11, President Trump extended the deadline by another 90 days.