HVAC shipments fell 20% in 2025
Just over 7.7 million combined air conditioners and heat pumps were shipped during the year, down from roughly 9.6 million in 2024
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HVAC manufacturers shipped roughly 408,000 combined central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in December 2025, according to AHRI data released Friday.
What’s happening: That’s a 21.4 percent year-over-year decline, marking the seventh consecutive month when combined shipments fell over 20 percent. (The figure includes residential and commercial equipment.)
State of play: In 2025, just over 7.7 million combined units were shipped, a 20 percent decline from roughly 9.6 million in 2024.
- Yes, but: Comparisons to 2024 are tricky: AC and heat pump shipments grew double digits each month from July to December, as the industry stocked up on equipment ahead of the January 2025 refrigerant cutoff.
Of note: ACs outsold heat pumps for the full year 2025, but heat pumps outsold ACs each month from September to December.
- Meanwhile, furnaces haven’t been abandoned: In 2025, shipments of gas furnaces grew four percent year-over-year.
What we’re watching: Industry observers have described the market as finding a bottom and moving toward stabilization, with expectations that distributor destocking will end and the housing market will improve this year.
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