HVAC shipments slide for third straight month, drop 27% in July

U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in July slumped for the third consecutive month, according to AHRI data released Tuesday. 

What’s happening: HVAC manufacturers shipped just over 763,000 combined units during the month, a 27 percent year-over-year decrease. (The figure includes both residential and commercial equipment.)

• Why it matters: The release follows a similar 22 percent drop in June and marks the weakest July, volume-wise, since 2015, when roughly 726,000 combined units were shipped, per AHRI.

Zoom in: Air conditioner shipments, in particular, fell 33 percent year-over-year during the month, while heat pump shipments declined by 18 percent — heat pumps’ second monthly drop this year. 

• Year-to-date: Combined shipments from January through July, totaling 5.34 million units, are now down seven percent compared to the same period last year — and 4.5 percent from 2023. 

Between the lines: While the 27 percent drop is noteworthy, this July faced a tough comparison: Manufacturers in July 2024 shipped more combined ACs and heat pumps than in any July since at least 2010, according to the furthest available AHRI data. 

The big picture: Shipments will likely remain lower for the rest of this year, partly due to distributor stocking ahead of the January 2025 manufacturing cutoff, writes Distribution Strategy Group (DSG), based on a conversation with HARDI analyst Brian Loftus. 

• But, but, but: While several factors impact shipments, the trend “does not mean that the market is contracting or collapsing,” Loftus noted. “It is just steady, and the channel getting back into balance after the equipment transition.”

What’s next: August’s shipment figures will be released in early October.