HVAC shipments tumble 30% in August

U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in August fell 30 percent year-over-year, according to AHRI data released Friday. 

What’s happening: HVAC manufacturers shipped just over 679,000 combined units during the month, down from over 975,000 in August 2024. (The figure includes both residential and commercial equipment.)

• Why it matters: The release marks the third consecutive month when shipments declined by more than 20 percent year-over-year.

Zoom in: Air conditioner shipments, in particular, fell 37.5 percent during the month, while heat pump shipments declined by 20 percent — heat pumps’ third monthly drop this year.

• Year-to-date: Combined shipments from January through August, totaling 6.02 million units, are now down 10.6 percent compared to the same period last year — and seven percent from 2023. 

The big picture: While August’s drop is noteworthy, it doesn’t come as a total surprise. “We estimate that industry volumes in August and September will be down in that range, if not worse,” said Carrier CEO Dave Gitlin, referencing July, when shipments fell 27 percent year-over-year. 

• Shipments will “likely be lower” for the rest of this year, Distribution Strategy Group added in September, “because distributors stocked up in 2024 on equipment ahead of the January 2025 phaseout of 410A refrigerants.”

Case in point: Manufacturers in both July and August 2024 shipped more combined ACs and heat pumps than in any July and August since at least 2010, according to the furthest available AHRI data. 

What’s next: September’s shipment figures will be released in early November.