July outlook signals strong cooling demand

The HVAC industry has a wind at its back heading into July. 

What’s happening: The “first significant heat wave” of the season, according to the National Weather Service, is expected to drive record temperatures across the eastern U.S. this week, with parts of the Midwest and Northeast at risk of extreme heat through July 1. 

• Meanwhile, most of the U.S. has at least a 33 percent chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures in July, excluding a large portion of the Southeast, according to the agency’s seasonal outlook. 
• Yes, but: Over the three-month period through September, above-normal temperatures are expected for all 50 states — particularly those in the Northeast and along the Rockies, where the probability exceeds 50 percent. 

The kicker: The outlook paints a promising demand picture, as the forecasts build on a favorable comparison: In July 2024, U.S. Cooling Degree Days (CDDs), the primary measure of cooling demand, were only seven percent above normal levels — and were flat compared to July 2023.