HVAC Wrapped: 2025 in Review

Roll the tape: The year 2025 was defined by a number of major storylines, including a new administration, the accelerating A2L transition, and AI barnstorming into every corner of the industry, ready or not. 

With all of its ups and downs, this year made for a juicy highlight reel:

The Opening Act: January – March

• Donald Trump is sworn into his second presidential term and immediately signs an executive order pausing funding for all Inflation Reduction Act programs, throwing a pair of federal HVAC-focused rebate programs into limbo.
• The president imposes a 25 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, the U.S. HVAC industry’s largest foreign supplier, before partially reversing course by implementing an exemption — covering products including HVAC equipment — that remains in place today. 
• Air Pros files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, marking the first such case for a larger-scale, private equity-backed HVAC platform formed in recent years. 

Picking up Steam: April – June 

• Honeywell and Chemours hike prices for R-454B refrigerant, citing rising raw material costs amid emerging industry-wide issues with obtaining cylinders. 
• President Trump, on “Liberation Day,” slaps tariffs on countries across the globe, kicking off a series of negotiations and back-and-forth tariff announcements. 
• HVAC, plumbing, and electrical platform Redwood Services receives a majority investment from Toronto-based private equity firm Altas Partners, valuing the company at around $1.1 billion; weeks later, Homepros reports that Columbia Home Services and P1 Service Group are set to merge in a deal valuing the combined firm at around $325 million, including debt. 

Summer Stretch: July – September 

• President Trump signs his ‘big, beautiful bill’ into law, axing a pair of federal HVAC-focused tax credits, but offering contractors several perks, including making permanent a small business pass-through deduction and a bonus depreciation incentive.  
• Executives from Carrier, Lennox, Trane, and Watsco chime in on troubles in the residential HVAC market, while shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps continue a months-long slide. 
• Nexstar Network, the 33-year-old contractor coaching and training group, gives private equity the hand, cutting a third of its membership base — and 50 percent of its revenue. 
• A2L equipment tops 90 percent of HVAC distributor sales, marking a rapid acceleration across the industry, with the figure growing more than fivefold from 17 percent in January. 

The Finish: October – December 

• The EPA proposes nixing the January 1, 2026, installation deadline for many residential and light commercial R-410A systems. 
• A federal appeals court upholds the Department of Energy’s 95 percent efficiency rule for residential gas furnaces, effectively prohibiting the manufacture of non-condensing furnaces beginning in late 2028. 

What else happened: AI CSRs draw adopters — and holdouts

• Rheem parent moves forward with Fujitsu HVAC acquisition
• Instagram posts became Google-searchable this summer: What to know
• ChatGPT enters home services with Thumbtack partnership
• HVAC enrollment at vocational schools jumps 29%
• Energy efficiency needs better messaging, panelists argue
• Bain Capital rounds up $3.1 billion to buy Service Logic