Carrier, Lennox execs on today’s market

Carrier and Lennox executives spoke at a pair of investor conferences in Miami last week, reflecting on a market where unit volumes fell sharply throughout the second half of 2025 — and the road ahead. 

What they’re saying: “We’ve assumed that we’re gonna be down about mid-single-digits, full year in volumes,” said Lennox CFO Michael Quenzer. But: “We think we’re in a position for growth in the next several years… The average life of equipment continues to shorten.”

Go deeper: “We saw repair activity increase last year, and really characterize that around three big drivers,” he noted, highlighting the A2L transition and depressed existing home sales as the first two. “The last one is about affordability.”

• “We do see some homeowners making what we would say are maybe not great economical decisions, doing a $4,000-$5,000 repair on an 18-year-old unit,” he added.  
• Yes, but: “We think that’ll continue to neutralize, as the cost of repairs is going to continue to go up,” he said. “Both the cost of the legacy R-410A is going to increase. The technician shortage to do these complex repairs is going to go up.”

Meanwhile, Carrier CEO Dave Gitlin told a similar story: The company observed an increase in repair activity last year, driven by the same set of factors, and argued it’s “not a long-term trend.”

• “So, look, we feel good that it’s a replacement business. We’re going to get back to being a replacement business,” he said. “We need a couple of these macros to go in our direction, and we’ll start to revert back to that mean.”
• Of note: Carrier anticipates that unit volumes will fall another 10 to 15 percent this year — down 20 to 25 percent year-over-year in the first half, then flat in the second half.

What we’re watching: Both companies confirmed upcoming price increases, citing rising commodity costs. Quenzer said Lennox would announce “a mid-single-digit type price increase this year,” while Gitlin noted that Carrier’s previously announced five percent increase “comes into place next month.”