Carrier tops residential sales expectations, raises full-year outlook

Carrier’s Americas residential sales rose a better-than-expected nine percent year-over-year in the second quarter, the company reported Tuesday, marking a reversal from Q1. 

Catch up quick: Americas residential sales fell 12 percent year-over-year in the first quarter, driven by an eight percent drop in unit volume. At the time, Carrier projected second-quarter sales to be down “about mid-teens,” as Homepros reported. The company on Tuesday didn’t specify Q2 unit volumes.

What’s happening: Carrier on Tuesday raised its full-year outlook for both industry volumes and its Americas residential business.

• “We now expect the market to be around 7 million to 7.5 million units [shipped] this year, largely stable versus last year,” CEO Dave Gitlin said on the company’s earnings call — up from an initial projection of ~6.5 million units. 
• For context: Roughly 7.7 million combined central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps were shipped in 2025, according to AHRI, which tracks equipment moving into the channel, not sales to homeowners.

What they’re saying: “While some of the macros from last year remain (higher interest rates and inflationary pressure on the consumer), we are seeing demand for new home construction and existing home sales, both expected to be up this year,” a Carrier spokesperson told Homepros in an email.

Meanwhile, Carrier now expects its full-year Americas residential sales to be up high single digits from 2025, a swing from April, when it guided the segment down high single digits. 

The big picture: “Fundamentally, it feels to us like we’re getting back to basics, and we’re heading back to it being a replacement market,” Gitlin told analysts, describing the company’s read on the residential market.

• “Even though you’re still dealing with higher interest rates and some pressure on the consumer, there’s pent-up demand in the United States for new homes. There’s pent-up demand to increase existing homes, and there’s only so long a customer can repair over replace,” he said.
• “I think at the end of the day, there’s a sense that people are just getting a little bit more comfortable being uncomfortable with higher mortgage rates. There’s some tension out there, of course, with higher fuel prices, but at some point, there’s just too much pent-up demand for new home construction, because we have four or five million too few homes in the U.S. There’s pent-up demand for existing home sales to increase, because they’ve been at 20-year lows. So we think we’re just at a turning point.”

Looking ahead: The company projects its Americas residential “movement” — unit volumes — to be up mid single digits in the second half of this year, Gitlin said. 

• Of note: That comes against easy comparisons, as unit volumes fell 40 percent year-over-year in Q3 2025, and “over 40 percent” in Q4. 

What’s next: Carrier will report third-quarter earnings in late October.