HVAC shipments inch up after nine months of declines

U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totaled nearly 639,000 units in February 2026, according to AHRI data released Friday, a 0.4 percent year-over-year increase.

• Why it matters: That marks the first month since April 2025 when combined shipments grew compared to the previous year. 

Go deeper: Shipments of air conditioners, in particular, fell 4.2 percent year-over-year during the month, while heat pump shipments grew 5.8 percent. 

• Of note: Heat pumps outsold A/Cs on a monthly basis for the first time in September 2025, as Homepros recently reported, a trend that lasted through January — but didn’t continue in February.

Zoom out: Year-to-date, combined shipments are down 14.3 percent compared to the same period in 2025. 

What they’re saying: “I think the annual shipment rate has bottomed here,” HARDI analyst Brian Loftus told Homepros via email. 

• “Look at the rolling three-month shipment growth rate for each product line,” which “leads the annual” rate, he added. “The 3-month rate is improving for AC[s] and heat pumps.”