HVAC buying indicator edges up in Q1, remains near historic lows

The share of U.S. consumers who felt it was a good time to buy large household durables — an indicator of HVAC purchasing intent — in the first quarter of this year grew one percentage point from the fourth quarter of 2025, but remains near historic lows, according to data released Friday. 

What’s happening: In the University of Michigan’s popular consumer survey, when asked whether now is a good or bad time to buy ‘major household items,’ 32 percent of respondents in Q1 said it was a good time. In Q4 2025, the figure stood at 31 percent, matching the all-time low set in the fourth quarter of 1974. 

• Meanwhile, the share of respondents who felt it was a bad time to buy last quarter stood at 65 percent. That’s down one percentage point from 66 percent in Q4 2025, the figure’s all-time high. 

The big picture: The trends mark a reversal compared to six years ago. In Q1 2020, at the onset of the Covid pandemic, 74 percent of consumers said it was a good time to buy major household items, according to the data, while 21 percent said it was a bad time.